Concinnapowered by Talon AI LLC
Concinnapowered by Talon AI LLC
Here's the whole picture — every figure built from public federal data, no PHI and nothing to sign. Follow the path, or jump straight to whatever you want to pressure-test first.
Risk capture, Part D, cost trend, market selection — the levers you're already working. A public, federal, seven-year view gives each of them a second set of eyes: at physician grain, across the markets and groups beyond your own book.
It doesn't see your members — it sees the federal ground truth around them. A complement to the pipeline you've built, offered in service of the same goal.
The standard quantitative inputs for evaluating a physician group, each produced from public federal data, seven years before you sign. Five run on the Medicare-FFS proxy used industry-wide.
Worked live for a 39-PCP independent group in one of your North Carolina markets — group de-identified; every figure reproduces against the live lake (June 2026).
| Screening input | Live answer — the market & group | Status | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MA Market Penetration | 61.6% of the county's Medicare is MA, 2024 | live |
| 2 | MA Market Growth | +3.7% MA enrollment, year over year | live |
| 3 | Payer Market Dynamics | Top-payer share 21.5% at parent level, top-4 mapped | live |
| 4 | Benchmark Rate | County $1,235.88 PMPM, CY2026 | live |
| 5 | Group MA Membersproxy | 10,803 attributed FFS beneficiaries on the panel | live |
| 6 | Group # of PCPs | 39 primary-care physicians (exact, PECOS) | live |
| 7 | Group MA RAFproxy | Drug-implied RAF 0.91 | live |
| 8 | Group MA Revenueproxy | ≈$145.5M est. annual MA premium at full risk | live |
| 9 | Group MA MedExproxy | ≈$117.7M est. annual medical cost — implied margin ≈$28M | live |
The rubric finds the right group. The corporate graph tells you whether it's independent, who controls it, and where the warm path actually runs — the read no claims feed or physician directory holds.
Worked live for a 22-PCP independent multispecialty group in a Denver-metro market — group de-identified; ownership, integrity and panel verified against the live lake (June 2026).
| Access signal | Live answer | What it tells you | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ownership type | Independent — no public parent, not hospital-owned | Acquirable; not already inside a system |
| 2 | Group shape | Multispecialty, 3 specialty lines · ~3,400-bene panel | A real operating group with a referable book |
| 3 | Federal integrity | 0 OIG / SAM exclusions across the panel | Clean — no integrity flags before you engage |
| 4 | Corporate footprint | No holding company above it in the corporate graph | No roll-up or PE parent sitting on top (yet) |
| 5 | Entity & access path | Resolved on lookup — agent, standing & formation from state registries | A direct line to control — captured per group on request |
Every U.S. county scored on one transparent composite — PCP supply, how little of the market is already value-based, how few REACH competitors have organized it, and risk-documentation headroom — equal-weight percentiles, no hidden weights. Cut to NY, PA, OH and NC.
| Market | Medicare benes | PCPs | VBC density | REACH ACOs | Target score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York (Manhattan), NY | 305,603 | 8,193 | 0.78 | 34 | 3.02 |
| 2 | Durham, NC | 56,158 | 928 | 0.81 | 9 | 2.83 |
| 3 | Monroe (Rochester), NY | 177,779 | 2,686 | 0.86 | 1 | 2.80 |
| 4 | Broome (Binghamton), NY | 47,833 | 547 | 0.84 | 3 | 2.72 |
| 5 | Dauphin (Harrisburg), PA | 64,363 | 961 | 0.82 | 3 | 2.62 |
| 6 | Buncombe (Asheville), NC | 68,879 | 1,032 | 0.83 | 12 | 2.61 |
| 7 | Philadelphia, PA | 274,655 | 4,954 | 0.79 | 18 | 2.32 |
A view of the lever you've moved most: where a panel's prescribing suggests chronic disease that coding may not yet reflect — surfaced as an opportunity to pursue, not a verdict. It comes only from triangulating four federal sources.
A RAF point is worth roughly $900 per MA member, per 0.1 point, a year. Move the inputs to your book and watch the gross at stake.
The rubric is one use of the lake — underwriting. The same asset maps to the levers across your platform.
External, prospective RAF signal at panel grain — across existing members, ahead of reconciliation. ≈$900 per MA member per 0.1 RAF — material at book scale.
Seven years of Part D prescribing + RxHCC scoring + specialty-drug trajectory — an external benchmark months ahead of late-year reconciliation.
The full FFS cost stack — carrier, inpatient, outpatient, per-capita by county 2014–2024 — to validate trend by market ahead of your claims lag.
Payer share by parent × county × multi-year trend, county benchmarks, Star-bonus economics — sharper keep-or-exit decisions.
Every specialist by procedure, place-of-service and six-year volume; hospital-employed vs independent flagged — the margin lever, mapped.
Pre-score every independent group in a market before the first conversation — underwriting evidence in hand, so expansion is a confident decision rather than a leap.
Contract-level Star Ratings and the market quality landscape — benchmark your plans and price the bonus into every decision.
County chronic-disease prevalence and social vulnerability fused with claims — pathway targeting, and intelligence no provider database holds.
Four ways to pressure-test the lake on ground you know cold, before any conversation.
The full market-selection decision pack — your core states ranked, targets scored and ownership-screened, every figure carrying its federal receipt.
Franklin County, built end-to-end from public data — penetration, payers, chronic burden, the independent panels. Read it against what you know cold.
A whole market's independent landscape, screened from the system-owned — proof the engine maps anywhere, not just your backyard.
The dynamic read on where margin is made and lost across a book — the engine, running.
Not sure where to start? Jump back to the map ↑
No leap of faith. A short pilot on your own population proves the value first — then it grows at your pace, never ahead of it.
The engine run against Agilon's own book — not a demo — on a market you name. If you continue, it credits toward the partnership. One low-risk decision, nothing more.
The working engagement: the full federal-intelligence platform and the modules that matter most for risk-bearing care — risk adjustment, network, Part D, provider integrity.
When the time is right, Concinna embedded directly into Agilon's own workflows — a deeper licensing arrangement, scoped to where it earns its place.
Priced to a few basis points of the medical margin it's built to protect — the full figures come with the working session, tailored to your book.
"When you underwrite a new physician group — what does your profile look like, and what would seven years of their Medicare history, before you sign, be worth?"